The global cargo marine insurance market remains stable but faces mounting uncertainty from tariffs and shifting trade patterns, according to the International Union of Marine Insurance (IUMI).
At IUMI's annual conference in Singapore, Cargo Committee chair Mike Brews reported that global cargo premiums rose to US$22.64 billion in 2024, a 1.6% increase from the previous year. Loss ratios have steadily improved since 2018, while the 2024 claims environment was largely benign, with no major catastrophic losses.
Brews said the cargo market has remained stable in terms of global premium income, with a particularly large jump coming from China, much of which likely reflects previously under-reported business. He added that the sector continues to face challenges including cargo accumulations, mis-declared goods, the transition to net-zero and war-related risks.
Tariffs reshape insured values
Brews warned that tariffs are beginning to reshape cargo values and supply chains, potentially altering risk accumulations and shipping patterns. In North America, tariffs could increase insured values by as much as 50%, while other regions could also feel the impact depending on where risk transfers occur.
Shifts in trade flows may disrupt established shipping routes, forcing insurers to adapt to new ports and storage facilities, each carrying different risk exposures.
Market capacity is also rising, with some underwriters absorbing larger risks at competitive premiums. This has contributed to gradual softening in certain segments. Brews said he does not expect a sharp downturn, noting that cargo underwriting remains profitable and continues to attract fresh investment.
Cargo versus other marine lines
Compared to other marine classes, cargo remains on a firmer footing. The hull insurance sector, for example, has faced more volatility in recent years, driven by rising vessel repair costs, supply chain bottlenecks and war-related exposures. Offshore energy has also been pressured by geopolitical instability and the sector’s transition toward renewables.
In this context, cargo has been the more consistent performer, offering both steady premium growth and manageable loss experience. However, its resilience could be tested if tariffs and geopolitical shifts reshape global trade flows.
Brews concluded that tariffs and broader geopolitical pressures could undermine both profitability and market balance if they reshape trade routes, costs, and volumes.
