Tokio Marine Holdings has shared insights on the projected characteristics of the 2025 typhoon season across the Northwest Pacific region, including key Asian markets.
According to their assessment and supporting research, the season is expected to produce fewer typhoons than average, but some of these storms could develop with increased strength, posing implications for risk management and insurance sectors.
The company referenced forecasts from meteorological agencies indicating a below-average number of typhoons this year.
The absence of El Niño and La Niña phenomena, along with stronger easterly trade winds and high-pressure systems near Taiwan, are expected to suppress the formation of tropical cyclones.
These atmospheric conditions typically reduce the occurrence of the low-pressure systems that spawn typhoons.
At the same time, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Eastern Indian Ocean are predicted to remain above average.
Since typhoons derive energy from warm ocean waters, sustained higher temperatures increase the chance that any typhoons that do form may intensify rapidly.
Dr. Takeshi Doi, senior researcher at the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), whose work Tokio Marine Holdings referenced, discussed recent progress in seasonal typhoon predictions.
Using a large ensemble of climate simulations, his team has improved the ability to forecast cyclone activity months in advance for specific areas such as Okinawa and Taiwan.
Doi SAID that focusing analysis on localized oceanic and atmospheric conditions enables more reliable predictions than broad regional forecasts.
For example, fluctuations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Indian Ocean strongly correlate with typhoon frequency near these areas.
When asked about extending forecasts to Japan’s main island, Honshu, Doi noted current limitations due to complex influences like wind patterns and the Pacific High anticyclone.
However, he indicated that ongoing advances in climate models and artificial intelligence may enhance longer-term, localised forecasts in the future.
Although fewer typhoons are expected in 2025, Tokio Marine Holdings highlighted the risk that some storms may exhibit significant intensity.
This dynamic underscores the importance for insurers, reinsurers, and brokers to remain vigilant in assessing exposure and adjusting risk management strategies accordingly.
Moreover, research findings from JAMSTEC point to environmental impacts beyond immediate storm damage, such as rising sea temperatures affecting coral reefs near Okinawa and Taiwan, which could influence marine and tourism insurance markets.
Separately, Willis reported that global insured losses from natural disasters are projected to exceed US$100 billion again in 2025, marking the seventh consecutive year above this level.
Notable losses this year include the Los Angeles wildfires, which have become the costliest wildfire event on record for insurers, alongside severe wildfires in Japan and South Korea, a busy US tornado season, Australia’s first cyclone near Brisbane in 50 years, and record wind speeds in Ireland.
The report also forecasts a potentially active North Atlantic hurricane season, which may add to the financial pressures on insurers and reinsurers globally.
