Climate driven disasters like fires and floods that frequently devastate livelihoods and property all over the world are pushing insurers to increase their use of “future modelling” to improve resilience. The aim is to save billions of dollars in economic and insured losses. These new tools are changing the way insurers and broker manage their clients’ property risks and are becoming essential resources for brokers seeking to navigate an era of escalating climate risk. The offerings leverage data and artificial intelligence (AI) and some can predict future climate scenarios more than fifty years into the future. These high-tech tools are giving brokers new capabilities to help clients understand and manage risk.
“The digital self-serve platform enables clients to independently perform climate risk assessments at asset and portfolio level for 12 perils, future climate scenarios and different time horizons,” said the insurer in a response to IB’s questions attributed to members its commercial team.
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However, a host of other insurers also have similar technology on the market.
In 2023, US headquartered FM Global announced its Climate Change Impact Report tool. According to the property focused insurer, this tool can pinpoint specific locations most vulnerable to climate change impacts, such as extreme rain, strong wind or heat waves and provide actionable insights.
There’s also Swiss Re’s Climate Risk Solutions platform. The insurer says this technology combines satellite data, machine learning and climate science to help brokers and clients assess perils exposures. The “scenario-based projections” extend to 2100 and allow brokers to present clients with long-term risk profiles and adaptation strategies.
Munich Re’s NATHAN Risk Suite, enhanced with what the insurer calls “climate change modules”, lets brokers and clients see how natural catastrophe risks may shift under different climate scenarios — information regarded as crucial when advising on property portfolios or renewal terms.
AXA XL also has a Climate Risk Assessment tool. This offering, says the firm, integrates “global climate models” with local hazard data, giving brokers a practical way to help businesses in real estate, infrastructure and manufacturing understand and adapt to their climate vulnerabilities.
Traditional climate modelling tools typically focused on hazard mapping or scenario analysis. The newer offerings claim to go considerably further and to be more comprehensive in what they can offer brokers and their clients.
For example, Allianz describes CAReS as “a holistic climate risk and resilience solution” and says it aims to address a full spectrum of climate risks: physical, operational, and financial, by integrating hazard data, vulnerability assessments and resilience strategies into a single platform.
The offerings also often come with a dedicated consultancy service but their dashboard based design is simplistic enough that business leaders, not just technical experts, can read and take action based on what they see.
“By leveraging modelling of future climate scenarios, CAReS intuitive dashboards and interactive maps allow businesses to visualize and assess risks under different future scenarios and prioritize resilience actions,” said Allianz in its response to IB.
Some of the data used in climate modelling is publicly available from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For example, Allianz said for “chronic” risks, CAReS uses the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) outlined by the IPCC. This data represents “potential future trajectories” based on different greenhouse gas emissions levels.
For "acute" risks - extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones and hail – Allianz said it uses its own models and “high-resolution downscaled outputs from climate model runs.”
Other insurers, such as Swiss Re and Munich Re, also blend public climate data with proprietary analytics. Swiss Re’s Climate Risk Solutions integrates IPCC scenarios with its own catastrophe databases and AI-driven analytics, while Munich Re’s NATHAN suite combines global climate projections with detailed local hazard maps for granular risk assessment.
Most industry stakeholders would agree that predicting the future climate with total accuracy is almost impossible. Allianz said uncertainties need to be considered when using their tool.
“Future modelling contains uncertainties that we must clearly communicate to our clients,” said the firm. “As the time horizon extends, tipping points become more unpredictable, and uncertainties increase.”
For insurance brokers, this underscores the importance of setting clear expectations with clients about the inherent uncertainties in long-term projections from advanced climate modelling tools.
However, industry reports have identified grounds for a rising demand for this technology among companies with global supply chains — a trend that could open up significant new opportunities for brokers. Since the COVID-19 pandemic and now the ongoing geopolitical challenges, supply chain challenges have been more of a focus for brokers and their customers.
According to Allianz’s latest Risk Barometer, supply chain disruption ranks among the top concerns for businesses worldwide, with 45% of respondents citing it as a leading risk in 2025. A survey by The Economist found that the pandemic’s supply chain interruptions reduced some companies’ revenue by up to 20%.
This suggests that brokers who can leverage this new tech will be well positioned to deliver value-added solutions that help safeguard clients’ operations and bottom lines.
Are you using advanced climate modelling tools with your clients? Please tell us what you think of this technology below.
